How do migrants choose their destinations?

Existing migration models usually rely on population size and travel distance to explain and predict the spatial patterns of migration flows. “Interestingly, however, people often migrate over long distances and to smaller destinations if their diaspora is present in these places. So if there are already people somewhere, others will follow”.

What we can observe is that even with very little information – namely the nationality of people and the size of the corresponding diaspora in a particular destination region – it is possible to reconstruct and also predict migration movements with a high degree of accuracy.

Listen to the paper in our AI podcast generated by NotebookLM Google.

The diaspora model for human migration